Scanty rainfall in the first four weeks of monsoon has resulted in a deficiency of 26 per cent rainfall but the weather off?ice has forecast a normal mo?nsoon albeit with less heavier rain.
“Monsoon set in over Kerala on June 5 (delayed by four days). The cumulative seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during June 1-21 is 76 per cent of total average rainfall. Till now, monsoon rain is 26 per cent deficient. But we are not worried as such delays are usual. It is ok if monsoon is delayed by a week,” Laxman Singh Rathore, director general, India Meteorological Department (IMD), disclosed at a press meet here on Friday.
However, in what would bring relief to the farmers and policy makers alike, the IMD estimated that the country will receive normal monsoon this year. There will be 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA - 50 years) rainfall as against the earlier predicted 99 per cent. A normal monsoon means rainfall between 96-104 per cent of a 50-year average rain during the four-month season from June to September.
As per the latest monsoon update, rainfall over the country as a whole for July 2012 is likely to be 98 per cent of its LPA and that for August is likely to be 96.
Over the four broad geographical regions of the country, rainfall for the 2012 southwest monsoon season is likely to be 93 per cent of its LPA over North-West India, 96 over Central India, 95 over South peninsula and 99 per cent over North-East India.
The IMD announcement came at a time when various sectors of the economy and the government were grappling with low economic growth and industrial output. A less than normal monsoon would have further pushed the growth into negative, putting a heavy burden on the already strained economy.
During the current week, southwest monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of central Maharashtra, interior Karnataka, most parts of Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of south Bay of Bengal and some more parts of Central and North Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, some more parts of east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh.
On the monsoon pattern so far, the Met office said: “On June 6, it rapidly advanced mainly along the west coast and over northeastern states and covered entire Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Goa, southern parts of Konkan, central Maharashtra, entire Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and parts of sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
“After a hiatus in the advance of monsoon for a period of about one week, on? 13, the monsoon further advanced into some more parts of central Maharashtra, interior Karnataka, most parts of Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of south Bay of Bengal and some more parts of central and north Bay of Bengal. By June 21, monsoon covered most parts of Arabian Sea, extreme south Gujarat, most parts of Maharashtra, entire Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal and Sikkim, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bay of Bengal and some parts of east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh.”
Sounding a word of caution, the weather office said: “ There is also substantial probability (about 36 per cent) for emergence of weak El Nino conditions during later part of the monsoon season. However, the probability of reemergence of La Nina conditions during the monsoon season is very less.
Clouding over
* Cumulative seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole during June 1-21 is 76 pc
* A week’s delay in monsoon onset is ok, says Met office
* Weatherman says monsoon will be normal, but with less heavier rain
* Southwest monsoon has covered some more areas of the country this week
* Substantial probability of weak El Nino conditions, says the forecast
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